Stock Market Strategies Decisions

Initiate Trade

The trading strategy begins with leading off by placing a position in anticipation that the possible Head & Shoulders Bottom will be activated. This is a vertical bull call spread. Lower strike calls are purchased and higher strike calls are sold. An approximate upside measuring objective can be obtained at this time. This would imply placing a vertical bull call spread with the highest strike at the measuring objective. It is suggested, however, that the closest out-of the-money calls be purchased and the calls one strike higher be sold. This is for liquidity considerations in anticipation of follow-up action when the neckline is penetrated.

The next lower level in the decision tree shows the two most distinct price moves that could occur a rally or a sell off. The market also could move sideways or experience myriad other price gyrations.

Valid Breakout

A close above the neckline on a noticeable increase in volume officially activates the H&S Bottom, This allows the technician to construct the specific upside measuring objective. It is also the time to make any trading strategy more directionally aggressive. For a vertical bull call spread, one-half of the losing leg should be liquidated. This means buying back covering one half of the higher strike calls that were sold short.

It is of almost importance for any trader to have a defined risk parameter. For classical bar chartists, this is usually straightforward. Assuming there was no possible second left shoulder on the chart, the technician would not expect the low of the right shoulder to be taken out. Thus, the bullish outlook would not seriously deteriorate unless a sell off to below the right shoulder occurred. Stop-loss orders in the options themselves are not usually recommended. A mental stop in the underlying instrument is the preferred approach. This means, of course, that a trader must possess the discipline to exit from a losing options position if the technical aspects of the underlying instrument begin breaking down.

Failure

Any Head & Shoulders formation is destroyed when the extreme of the head is violated, even intra day. Any bull strategy must be abandoned. The entire vertical bull spread should be liquidated.

Making a new price low affirms that the direction of the major trend remains downward. It does not automatically create a specific downside measuring objective. Therefore, it is never advisable to liquidate the long calls and stay with the short calls of the vertical spread. The position would turn into one of unlimited risk. It is far better to exit from a losing position and look for another more clear-cut technical situation.

Objective Met

When any classical bar charting measuring objective is met, it is prudent to realize at least some profits. In the case of the Head & Shoulders formation, profits on one-quarter to one-half of the position should be taken. Why only 25 percent? An H&S measuring objective is a minimum target. Although no specific maximum objective can be calculated, quotes often move far beyond the minimum objective. A trader should try to follow the old adage of cutting losses and letting profits run. This is what is being done in removing only a portion of the winning trade. The decision to exit from the remaining open positions should be based on usual support/resistance and volume/open interest considerations.

Fullback

In the long run, the most optimal path through the decision tree would flow. A price sell-off on declining volume back to the neckline would prompt removal of any remaining bearish positions. All short calls should be covered. The resulting position is simply long call options. Note that this is the technical situation in the options strategy matrix that results in the long call strategy.

Objective Met

A trader should begin to take partial profits when an objective is achieved. Removing 25 to 50 percent of all bullish positions is suggested. But this is, as economists are wont to say, all other things beingequal. This is not usually the case. For example, if the underlying instrument is a futures contract, open interest changes become important. In a futures contract, open interest declining as a price target is being achieved is a warning signal. The percentage of profitable positions removed would move up to 75 percent.

In general, protective mental sell-stops in the underlying instrument would follow the market up moving in fits and starts depending upon where support formed on the chart.

Symmetry Destroyed

If quotes move below the right shoulder low, the symmetry of the Head & Shoulders Bottom is destroyed. This does not automatically invalidate the pattern. The pattern is destroyed if the low of the head is taken out. But a trader must begin to mitigate the loss of the long call position. Removing approximately one-half of the long calls would accomplish this.

Another Chance

Since the Head & Shoulders Bottom remains valid, the original upside measuring objective is intact. A bullish stance should be held unless the low of this second pullback is taken out. The decision to add to bull positions is tricky. A close above the neckline once again would certainly revive the bullish look of the chart. Aggressive traders can then look to increase a bullish bias possibly with outright longs in the underlying instrument rather than long calls.

Pattern Destroyed

The worst path through the decision tree culminates, the H&S pattern has failed. Although the H&S formation is usually highly reliable, it does fail in up to 20 percent of the cases. If enough premium is remaining in the long call options, they can be liquidated. If so little premium remains, they can be held rather than paying commissions. May be the trader will get lucky and a price rally will occur. But a trader who uses the words luck or hope is in a terrible situation.